Best of #econtwitter - Week of September 18, 2022 [1/3]
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Please submit suggestions — very much including your own work! — over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
This is part one of three.
Paper summaries
Galo Nuño@NunoGalo
Who are the winners and losers from inflation?
This may seem a well-established issue in Economics, but surprisingly, there is still some confusion among pundits, central bankers, and academics. A short-🧵that I hope clarifies certain issues
1:48 PM · Sep 13, 2022
509 Reposts · 1.73K Likes
Hanno Lustig@HannoLustig
📣The secular decline in rates may not have boosted U.S. fiscal capacity as much as you think, but it definitely has exposed the U.S. Treasury to more interest rate risk. 🧵
based on #BPEA piece brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
@SVNieuwerburgh @ProfJiang @MindyXiaolan
brookings.edu
Measuring US fiscal capacity using discounted cash flow analysis
6:25 PM · Sep 13, 2022
18 Reposts · 51 Likes
PILoSSopher@pilossopher
We finally finished this draft, which can be found on my webpage drive.google.com/file/d/1U_MJHt…
8:35 PM · Sep 15, 2022
11 Reposts · 91 Likes
Tim Willems@timwillems85
Thrilled to see this paper with @ramz_53 accepted at @EJ_RES. We find a striking reversal of fortune: countries borrowing at spreads that are *low* given fundamentals are *more* likely to develop economic difficulties (growth slowdowns & debt crises) 1/9
academic.oup.com
Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes*
1:19 PM · Sep 15, 2022
16 Reposts · 60 Likes
Sergio Ocampo Díaz@socampdi
🚨New Paper🚨
Computing Longitudinal Moments for Het. Agent Models
w/@Baxter_VHR
🔗ir.lib.uwo.ca/economicsresrp…
🔹Computing moments with large MonteCarlo simulations is costly
🔹Alternative: Use model's distribution and its evolution
🔹Follow population instead of individuals
🧵👇
3:43 PM · Sep 14, 2022
24 Reposts · 91 Likes
Nikolai Roussanov@NickRoussanov
nber.org/digest/202209/…
@fang_leon
Many thanks to @nberpubs for featuring our work on inflation hedging properties of major asset classes. We show that separating energy from core inflation is crucial. Yesterday's market reaction to the surprise CPI print is case in point.
1/n
nber.org
Which Asset Classes Provide Inflation Hedges?
3:47 PM · Sep 14, 2022
31 Reposts · 83 Likes
Interesting discussions
João B. Duarte@JoaoBDuart3
Today I want to talk about a comparison of two statistics that, as a young macroeconomist, scares me quite a bit:
Fraction of papers in the AER related to Macro and Monetary: 7.4% (average of 2020 and 2021)
Fraction of JM candidates working in macro monetary (EJM): 24.5%
1:29 PM · Sep 16, 2022
13 Reposts · 150 Likes
^without (as always) intending to endorse any views, relatedly this week:
Ivan Werning@IvanWerning
NBER email list without a single macro paper. 👎
(Many interesting papers though)
1:02 PM · Sep 12, 2022
58 Likes
Kurt MIT-shock-man@SorryToBeKurt
Interesting facts!
A couple of points, related to my research on inequality within/across countries
1) disposable income need not necessarily reflect standard of living, since we know that expenditure rates (consumption/disposable income) vary a lot across the distribution 1/n
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
NEW: income inequality in US & UK is so wide that while the richest are very well off, the poorest have a worse standard of living than the poorest in countries like Slovenia https://t.co/gtHvhNsnuT
Essentially, US & UK are poor societies with some very rich people.
A thread: https://t.co/fXFsULsrQ3
9:12 AM · Sep 17, 2022
21 Reposts · 109 Likes
Florin Bilbiie 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@FlorinBilbiie
Oldie-goldie 2007 Berkeley graduation speech by Tom Sargent, the best concise summary of econ I read (12 points)
"Economics is organized common sense. Here is a short list of valuable lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.
1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.
4:58 PM · Sep 17, 2022
92 Reposts · 345 Likes
B@BrettMatsumoto
Seeing a lot of criticism of housing in CPI. Rents in CPI lag market measures. There are 2 sources of this lag. One is arguably desirable, and the other is undesirable. In terms of the first source, market measures are the rents for new leases, which does not reflect prices
10:02 PM · Sep 14, 2022
80 Reposts · 357 Likes
Theo Clifford@Theo_Clifford
Official data series are incredibly important, government stats agencies are incredibly opaque black boxes, and a lot of weird arbitrary stuff goes on inside — so "deep dive into how the sausage is made" is an extremely underrated genre of tweet.
(below is about rents in CPI)
B @BrettMatsumoto
increases the rent sample by only sampling units every 6 months. Additionally, the price changes are smoothed over the 6 months between sampling. To see the impact of this mechanical sampling lag, say rents increase by 10% (and everyone signs a new lease). Only 1/6 of the
4:18 PM · Sep 15, 2022
1 Like
Seema Jayachandran@seema_econ
What's the best development economics paper written in the past ~5 years?
(Was just having this conversation with someone, and am now curious to hear other views)
1:22 PM · Sep 14, 2022
147 Reposts · 840 Likes
Alex Tabarrok@ATabarrok
I have never once had cause to use JEL codes.
Search rendered them obsolete long ago.
12:55 AM · Sep 14, 2022
3 Reposts · 73 Likes
John Horton 🇺🇦@johnjhorton
@ATabarrok I have a paper that quotes Groucho Marx and uses him for an example—so we gave the paper the “Marxian Economics” JEL code
1:02 AM · Sep 14, 2022
23 Likes
Connor O’Brien 🏗🇺🇦@cojobrien
How did substacks so quickly converge on a price of ~$100-120/year?
9:19 PM · Sep 12, 2022
40 Likes
^market clearing is the only right answer of course; this newsletter, meanwhile, will always be competitively priced at p = 0 \approx MC