Best of #econtwitter - Week of September 25, 2022 [2/2]
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Please submit suggestions — very much including your own work! — over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
This is part two of two.
Paper summaries
![Twitter avatar for @hneutr](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/hneutr.jpg)
1/ New paper! nature.com/articles/s4158… with @_szhang @aaronclauset @DanLarremore.
🎓 We analyzed all 295K tenure-track faculty at US PhD-granting universities in 10,612 departments over 10 years to quantify hierarchy and dynamics in US faculty hiring and retention.
🦥 A summary:
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdMAAlOaAAM3lQk.jpg)
^lots and lots in the thread. Data (deidentified…?) seems to be here. For economics, one bit:
![Twitter avatar for @oliverwkim](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/oliverwkim.jpg)
Only 6% of economists move to a higher-ranked school than their PhD—the lowest % of all social sciences, third-last among all fields after Classics & Religious Studies(!)
(from the excellent new Wapman et al Nature article on US PhD production)
nature.com/articles/s4158…
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdSubcqaUAAwxeR.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @dkedrosky](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/dkedrosky.jpg)
Always liked this diagram, from Jones & Sloan's "Staying at the Top: The Ph.D. Origins of Economics Faculty."
Top 10 students get all the top 20 jobs, top 20 students all the top 50 jobs, etc.
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdbw2YfVQAA_YM-.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @oliverwkim](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/oliverwkim.jpg)
Oliver Kim @oliverwkim
^positive not normative, obviously
![Twitter avatar for @JohnRGrigsby](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/JohnRGrigsby.jpg)
Is inflation regressive? 🚨 New work 🚨 with @Conor_A_Walsh, @pipeton8 and @EricQian252 explores this question holistically by considering the impact of identified macro shocks on households' well-being, taking into account all parts of the budget constraint. Thread below! 👇
![Twitter avatar for @ngoldschlag](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/ngoldschlag.jpg)
Today I'm presenting work with @ufukakcigit on US inventors at this year's FSRDC conference in KC. We are rolling out new data that will soon be available to approved projects. These data link patent inventors to survey, census, and admin microdata at the Census Bureau.
![Twitter avatar for @paures12](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/paures12.jpg)
Is a “soft landing” possible?
In this new working paper with Anton Cheremukhin we contribute to the debate by bringing to the table a new theoretical argument that says that it is not only possible but reasonable in the current context of the labor market: 🧵(1/8)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdXKEvBXgAE13Os.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @td_econ](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/td_econ.jpg)
Long-term real interest rates have broadly been on a declining path since 1300!
Stunning chart from Rogoff, Rossi & Schmelzing
nber.org/papers/w30475 #econtwitter
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdLnRHFWYAg20DR.jpg)
^🥴
![Twitter avatar for @heimbergecon](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/heimbergecon.jpg)
Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth? My meta-analysis is out in Journal of Economic Perspectives. By analysing 816 estimates, I find
-publication bias in favor of negative growth effects
-no uniform public-debt-to-GDP threshold
🧵with summary and free paper link
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdcIlM8XgAIdUlK.jpg)
^the author misstates, this is actually published in the Journal of Economic Surveys, *not* in JEP (????)
![Twitter avatar for @simonhhess](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/simonhhess.jpg)
Do e-scooter services affect traffic accidents? We use the rollout of e-scooter services across 93 cities in 6 countries to study that question.
tl;dr;
They increase accidents in the average city. But there's a large group where they don't: cities with good infrastructure.
1/8
![Do shared e-scooter services cause traffic accidents? Evidence from six European countries
by: Cannon Cloud, Simon Heß, Johannes Kasinger
We estimate the causal effect of shared e-scooter services on traffic accidents by exploiting variation in availability of e-scooter services, induced by the staggered rollout across 93 cities in six countries. Police-reported accidents in the average month increased by around 8.2% after shared e-scooters were introduced. For cities with limited cycling infrastructure and where mobility relies heavily on cars, estimated effects are largest. In contrast, no effects are detectable in cities with high bike-lane density. This heterogeneity suggests that public policy can play a crucial role in mitigating accidents related to e-scooters and, more generally, to changes in urban mobility.](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdLaTL3XkAI82BY.png)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdLaTLwXwAAZoLx.png)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdLaTLwXwAILcMz.png)
![Twitter avatar for @RDMetcalfe](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RDMetcalfe.jpg)
Such smart technologies get positively assessed by engineers in the lab and have potential for energy conservation.
We analyze two field experiments to show that smart thermostats have at best a zero impact on energy use, and in some specifications actually increase energy use.
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdHJqI2aAAAcYBp.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @AllbriteAllday](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/AllbriteAllday.jpg)
San Francisco implemented a RCT to test the effects of a restorative justice intervention. Restorative justice reduced the probability of rearrest by ~20 percentage points.
Paper by @juliaalissa, @yotamshemtov, S. Raphael:
yotamshemtov.github.io/files/MIR.pdf
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFdR1O5cWAAMHtwx.png)
More: Sierra Leone program eval; Covid learning loss; teacher pay; export diversification; rice and zinc; Spanish flu racial disparities; MW and ag employment; HK housing market; media coverage & macro
Interesting discussions
![Twitter avatar for @oliverwkim](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/oliverwkim.jpg)
I've just updated the Research Tips page on my website, with new advice on 3rd and 4th years of the economics PhD. Hope this is helpful, or at least mildly amusing:
![Twitter avatar for @TradeDiversion](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/TradeDiversion.jpg)
Do speakers who don’t take notes during their seminar presentations have amazing powers of recall or are they missing out on most feedback?
I did policy debate in HS & college: when I'm at the front of a hotel ballroom & someone criticizes my argument, I jot down what they said.
![Twitter avatar for @JMarlonPhD](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/JMarlonPhD.jpg)
Was reminded today of this excellent list of scientific jargon to avoid, from R Somerville and @ClimateComms long ago but still completely relevant, especially as climate change work has become even more interdisciplinary.
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFcyyTAFWAAELIfA.jpg)
^via @salonium’s great newsletter