Best of #econtwitter - Week of September 6, 2020
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of the Best of Econtwitter. Recommendations always welcome over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
New papers
![Twitter avatar for @arpitrage](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/arpitrage.jpg)
“The small effects of political advertising are small regardless of context, message, sender, or receiver: Evidence from 59 real-time randomized experiments”
![Twitter avatar for @kmmunger](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/kmmunger.jpg)
Kevin Munger @kmmunger
^This, in one figure: (though do note commentary on the statistical power)
![Twitter avatar for @seth_j_hill](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/seth_j_hill.jpg)
New work with @aecoppock @vavreck @ScienceAdvances advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/e… We find little evidence of heterogeneity in persuasive effects of presidential campaign messages.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F012d2a66-29ab-4638-af6d-29397a43381a_1050x548.jpeg)
![Twitter avatar for @jasonmlindo](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jasonmlindo.jpg)
“Stable Income, Stable Family”
@IsaacDSwensen (r) me (r) @krishregmi
An extra $100 in max weekly unemployment insurance benefits ⬇️ divorce among laid off men by 1/3 of a percentage point, or 14% of the extra risk of divorce assoc with their layoffs. 1/n
nber.org/papers/w27753
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgv9d1IWoAE7prF.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @timothyjlayton](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/timothyjlayton.jpg)
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
"Are All Managed Care Plans Created Equal? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid"
with @MikeGeruso and @jwswallace
nber.org/papers/w27762
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4d59a693-8a15-4256-bbaa-49972077301c_977x95.jpeg)
![Twitter avatar for @arindube](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/arindube.jpg)
Our @nberpubs WP uses a mover-based event study design to estimate what happens when similar workers from the same original firm land at firms paying different wages & track their separation response (key measure of monopsony). @snaidunl @ihsaanbassier
nber.org/papers/w27755
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgx4qHBVgAEWcOD.png)
![Twitter avatar for @JohnHolbein1](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/JohnHolbein1.jpg)
👮👮👮 search black motorists 3x more than white motorists.
But (!), searches of black motorists don't yield more contraband.
Source (TX): "Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Cannot Be Justified by Efficiency"
nber.org/papers/w27761
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwYTnyXsAwsDK5.png)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwYT4mXsAAJdrI.jpg)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwYUYVXgAUzPK3.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @benjaminmarx](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/benjaminmarx.jpg)
🚨New paper alert!🚨 bit.ly/31JCiz6
@doquocanh, @GalbiatiRoberto, Miguel Ortiz Serrano and I study discrimination in financial markets in the context of France’s "Dreyfus Affair."
We show that investors can earn excess returns by betting against discriminators (1/8)
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F507a1673-b3f5-40de-af79-09aae6e147a9_1200x630.png)
![Twitter avatar for @hmmlowe](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/hmmlowe.jpg)
Fantastic null effect of contact study in Afghanistan.
Null effects are *especially* important here because the existing contact literature shows signs of publication bias -- i.e. our literature-prior is that contact tends to work, but the pub. bias may have misled us... [1/4]
![Twitter avatar for @yangyang_zhou](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/yangyang_zhou.jpg)
Yang-Yang Zhou @yangyang_zhou
Other paper summaries
![Twitter avatar for @TomValletti](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/TomValletti.jpg)
Excellent paper on the economics of data just published in the AER (@AEAjournal) by Charles Jones and Chris Tonetti (@StanfordGSB).
Data is non rival and can be used by any firms or people simultaneously, without being diminished. But this can generate privacy concerns.
1/
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEhEJFZuWoAApEZu.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @PorzioTommaso](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/PorzioTommaso.jpg)
This paper is an absolute must-read for anyone interested in development and misallocation.
It is one of my favorite papers and can be beautifully summarized in one figure, hence a short thread follow.
Key take-away: a lot of misallocation could be poor measurement.
1/N https://t.co/VfyQxf5izN
![Twitter avatar for @JeffBloem](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/JeffBloem.jpg)
Jeffrey Bloem @JeffBloem
^Arpit Gupta asks the right question about this whole literature
![Twitter avatar for @M_Giorcelli](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/M_Giorcelli.jpg)
Our paper “Scientific Education and Innovation: From Technical Diplomas to University STEM Degrees”, joint work with @BianchiEcon, is coming out in print in the October issue of @jeea. Here’s a summary of the paper. https://t.co/ZLcCXMAQYV
![Twitter avatar for @ImranRasul3](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/ImranRasul3.jpg)
Imran Rasul @ImranRasul3
![Twitter avatar for @TymonSloczynski](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/TymonSloczynski.jpg)
I am very happy to announce that my paper, "Interpreting OLS Estimands When Treatment Effects Are Heterogeneous: Smaller Groups Get Larger Weights," is forthcoming in @restatjournal. Below, I explain its contribution & implications for applied work.
doi.org/10.1162/rest_a…
1/n
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2f35df0-ae16-4b11-8995-246355531fd3_1200x1470.png)
![Twitter avatar for @melindacmills](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/melindacmills.jpg)
Do people have children at the age they want? Or do desires change? Our longitudinal analysis today in @DemographicRes finds ~33% are earlier, ~16% as planned, ~49% later & 50% change desires as they get older @OxfordDemSci
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEg0PrrLXcAAJMl5.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @JADHazell](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/JADHazell.jpg)
🥳 🥳 🥳
Our paper (with @cogeorg and Matt Elliott) “Systemic Risk Shifting in Financial Networks” was accepted by the Journal of Economic Theory!
🥳 🥳 🥳
Link to latest draft: dropbox.com/s/fzm7opdmjady…
What’s the paper about? \begin{thread}
(1/8)
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3060f210-cc69-4ea9-9fb4-aefcd1af265e_160x160.png)
![Twitter avatar for @pseudoerasmus](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/pseudoerasmus.jpg)
New EHR article. Structural transformation (from agricultural to industrial to service) in 🇯🇵 over the century 1885-1985: decomposition into demand (consumption changes) & supply factors (productivity). By Fukao & @Saumik78267353 (blog of article in EHR) ehsthelongrun.net/2020/08/31/bau…
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwj3YrWoAAu5eX.jpg)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwj4Z4XgAMYV_J.png)
![Twitter avatar for @EcHistSocReview](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/EcHistSocReview.jpg)
Economic History Review @EcHistSocReview
![Twitter avatar for @JohnHolbein1](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/JohnHolbein1.jpg)
My latest (with @cdcrabtree, Kern, and Pfaff) is out today at @PAReview.
We show that public schools discriminate a lot against Muslim and Atheist families.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwZXx9WsAA3C7d.jpg)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEgwZYFuX0AI21HC.jpg)
Public goods
![Twitter avatar for @FabioGhironi](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/FabioGhironi.jpg)
Quarterly macro and financial data since 1950 for a large group of countries: ericmonnet.eu/macro-financia… Thank you @MonnetEric and Damien Puy!
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,h_314,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14ec02de-24a3-4039-87cf-a41dac235802_192x192.png)
![Twitter avatar for @SashaIndarte](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/SashaIndarte.jpg)
🔥 job market public good alert 🔥 There's a lot of info to stay on top of during the job market. I created an organizer to keep track of apps, interviews, flyouts (zoom-outs?), reimbursements, and offers. Find it below or on my website
![Twitter avatar for @SashaIndarte](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/SashaIndarte.jpg)
Sasha Indarte @SashaIndarte
![Twitter avatar for @RalphLuet](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RalphLuet.jpg)
As teaching is about the start, I have uploaded very accessible codes that solve the Krusell-Smith model via the two most popular solution methods for heterogenous agent models with aggregate shocks: Perturbation (as in Reiter's work)and MIT shocks (as in @SorryToBeKurt's work).
![Twitter avatar for @lukestein](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/lukestein.jpg)
If anyone wants a step-by-step tutorial to try this, there’s a nice one from @nchan on YouTube: youtu.be/ALesylse5a0 https://t.co/CsuF6Va1CA
![Twitter avatar for @ShengwuLi](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/ShengwuLi.jpg)
Shengwu Li @ShengwuLi
Good discussions
![Twitter avatar for @Brett_Matsumot0](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/Brett_Matsumot0.jpg)
Some, but not all, of the usual biases have shifted during the pandemic, so it's not obvious that the overall CPI bias has switched signs. Regardless, a lot of these effects are very short term and will have equal and offsetting effects in the rebound. He identifies 4 causes of
![Twitter avatar for @JustinWolfers](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/JustinWolfers.jpg)
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers