Best of #econtwitter - Week of November 7, 2021
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Thanks to those sharing suggestions, over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
Paper summary threads
I recently dug into @TymonSloczynski's awesome and mind-bending paper, "Interpreting OLS Estimands When Treatment Effects Are Heterogeneous: Smaller Groups Get Larger Weights
people.brandeis.edu/~tslocz/Sloczy…
I had to make some graphs to figure it out and I do love to share a good graph!
Finding #1: The effect of ads is much larger down-ballot than in presidential elections: 2-4 times larger in gubernatorial and congressional elections and 10-19 times larger in other statewide races. Here's a graph showing this.
^“via difference-in-differences and border-discontinuity designs”. See also: effect of teacher strikes on political ads
Okay let’s figure out why Zillow Offers failed.
Buchak Matvos Piskorski Seru quantify the frictions (especially adverse selection) that limit dealer intermediation in real estate, Ie iBuyers.
conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f1…
Are professional forecasters irrational? Our new paper, argues ‘No’. Bayesian forecasters learning about how the world works generate all the most prominent forecasting “anomalies” in the literature: eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/pa… (with Emi Nakamura and Leland Farmer) 1/6
^mildly related: using Keynesian beauty contests for forecasting
1/ New paper with @qiuyueruc and @aaronsojourner on common ownership and labor. We find that common ownership reduces wages and employment.
Link here 👉 dropbox.com/s/s3nvbsxtmf7n…
Delighted my paper "Reshaping Adolescents Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-based Experiment in India" w @diva_dhar & @seema_econ is forthcoming at the American Economic Review @AEAjournals!
Final version:
“Just 27% of mothers who are academic scientists get tenure, compared with 48% of fathers and 46% of women without children.”
nber.org/papers/w29436
When activists against a mining project are assassinated, the mining firm’s financial returns 📉 due to the negative media exposure.
👉 Free media help protect the rule of law.
by @DKreitmeir @straightedge @PaulRaschky
davidkreitmeir.netlify.app/publication/va…
Does college make you live longer?
This new @nberpubs 📄 suggests yes.
"The Effects of Education on Mortality: Evidence Using College Expansions" by @jasonmfletcher & Noghanibehambari nber.org/papers/w29423 #nbermonday
More: blind removals from foster care; German 2020 VAT cut; early childhood development program evaluation at scale; credit easing theory; economic impact of hosting refugees
Public goods
Hey #econtwitter, not sure how many use the Kilts/Nielsen data but we've put together a Python package for reading and filtering Kilts data at blistering speed. It is based on the latest version 1/3 @ApacheArrow.
Interesting discussions
It's bothered me that some research on subnational aid found it was pro-poor while others (often but not always me) tended to not find pro-poor targeting. I think I cracked it. Basically, aid goes to "where the poor live" much more when the poor live where the better off live.
Hey #econtwitter, did you know that Ashenfelter and Heckman were almost of the same cohort at Princeton, and they even published together in the initial years of their careers? How come they ended up on opposing sides on the randomistas x structural models debate?
(^thread; eh on the conflict framing though 1, 2, etc)
My two cents FWIW: Having a field called "development economics" makes no sense. It is essentially all fields of economics related to the 84% of people in the world who don't live in high-income countries. It is good to see it gradually absorbed into the other fields of econ.
Seriously, on the job market, have a field
Martin Schmalz @OxfordFrom
^see also replies, eg