Best of #econtwitter - Week of March 26, 2023: paper summaries
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Please submit suggestions — very much including your own work! — over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
Too many good ones this week!
Idiosyncratic favorites
Klodiana Istrefi@KlodianaIstrefi
📢New paper, fresh as @cepr_org DP, joint with @LukasHack_ & @MatthiasMeier
How to identify causal effects of systematic monetary policy on the propagation of shocks?
A 🧵 feat. FOMC hawks&doves, a novel IV + gov. spending shocks
cepr.org/publications/d…
Matthias Meier @MatthiasMeier1
📢New Paper📢
𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬?
Joint with @LukasHack_ and @KlodianaIstrefi
Link: https://t.co/gWWh2HemwA https://t.co/y8NzazBvIb
2:11 PM · Mar 23, 2023
7 Reposts · 39 Likes
Klodiana Istrefi@KlodianaIstrefi
Challenges:
1) SysMP may vary endogenously with the state of the economy or politicians may appoint certain type of central bankers because of economic conditions.
2) How to measure sysMP?
Our proposal: An IV that leverages exogenous variation from the FOMC voting rotation. 2/6
2:11 PM · Mar 23, 2023
1 Like
Klodiana Istrefi@KlodianaIstrefi
Using my classification of FOMC hawks & doves in Istrefi (2019), we construct (i) an IV capturing only variation in preferences among rotating voters (ii) a measure of systematic MP based on all FOMC voters ➡️ can study propagation of any shock 3/6
2:11 PM · Mar 23, 2023
2 Likes
Yonah Freemark@yfreemark
We develop a dataset of zoning reforms in 100s of US cities in new @USJ_online article and find:
—Reforms loosening restrictions—upzoning—are associated with a small increase in housing supply.
—Reforms tightening them are associated with higher rents. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00…
1:01 PM · Mar 21, 2023
151 Reposts · 504 Likes
Tina Stacy@TinaPStacy
We use machine-learning algorithms to search US newspaper articles between 2000 and 2019 to generate the first cross-city panel dataset of land-use reforms.
12:40 PM · Mar 21, 2023
1 Repost · 11 Likes
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬@lymanstoneky
What happens when Swedish people win the lottery?
For men, they get married and have kids.
For women, they get divorced.
nber.org
Fortunate Families? The Effects of Wealth on Marriage and Fertility
2:30 PM · Mar 20, 2023
525 Reposts · 2.68K Likes
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬@lymanstoneky
here it is in figures.
2:34 PM · Mar 20, 2023
6 Reposts · 125 Likes
Eleonora Guarnieri@El_Guarnieri
We address two questions: 1⃣ Why do some armed actors exert sexual violence and others do not? 2⃣ Why does a given actor perpetrate sexual violence in some cases but not in others? The variation in the use of sexual violence is large:
8:28 PM · Mar 22, 2023
10 Likes
Eleonora Guarnieri@El_Guarnieri
We propose a novel Male Dominance Index at the ethnicity level to measure gender norms. The index is based on ten ethnic characteristics that relate to notions of gender (in)equality. There is large within-country variation in male dominance:
8:28 PM · Mar 22, 2023
10 Likes
Jay Van Bavel@jayvanbavel
We analyzed 22,743 experiments from @Upworthy and you won't believe what happened next!
We found that negative news headlines drove online engagement. Each additional negative word in a headline increased clicks by 2.3%.
See thread below for details...
3:33 PM · Mar 23, 2023
158 Reposts · 552 Likes
Jay Van Bavel@jayvanbavel
@Upworthy @CRobertson500 @NicProllochs @philipparnamets @stfeuerriegel @NatureHumBehav @Nature Although positive words were slightly more prevalent than negative words on Upworthy, negative words in news headlines increased consumption rates (and positive words decreased consumption rates).
Each additional negative word increased the click-through rate by 2.3%.
3:43 PM · Mar 23, 2023
2 Reposts · 5 Likes
Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert
Derek Thompson @DKThomp
Last week, I read a fascinating paper: "NEGATIVITY DRIVES ONLINE NEWS CONSUMPTION."
I talked to one of the co-authors and wrote about
- negativity bias in online news
- why it's really bad
- whose fault it is
- the dark side of optimizing for engagement
https://t.co/dwyhzlxvqB
1:32 PM · Mar 24, 2023
2 Reposts · 16 Likes
^if other companies released their experimentation data, like the Upworthy research archive used here happened to be… 🤤
Paper summaries
D. Yanagizawa-Drott@YanagizawaD
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨
How Are Gender Norms Perceived?
NBER WP:
nber.org/papers/w31049
Ungated paper:
yanagizawadrott.com/wp-content/upl…
1/ Why we should care and why the answer is (literally) surprising… A thread: 👇
1:17 PM · Mar 22, 2023
92 Reposts · 351 Likes
FedResearch@FedResearch
New #FEDSNote by Brendan Price and Melanie Wasserman shows that “Gender Gaps in the Labor Market Widen Every Summer”. School closures for summer break—and accompanying lapses in childcare—lead to declines in women’s employment, LFP, and earnings. federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…
3:37 PM · Mar 24, 2023
1 Repost · 2 Likes
Mariacristina De Nardi@M_De_Nardi
We find that even temporary drops in income and health are associated with drops in consumption and most of the effect of temporary drops in health on consumption stems from the reduction in the marginal utility from consumption that they generate.
Institute for Fiscal Studies @TheIFS
NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: Old age risks, consumption, and insurance
@R_Blundell_UCL, Margherita Borella, @joj_como and @M_De_Nardi measure the effects of income and health shocks on consumption among U.S. households over age 65.
Read IFSWP23/12 here: https://t.co/1eXY0MSJXN https://t.co/WscnjfeQ1e
11:43 AM · Mar 21, 2023
8 Reposts · 47 Likes
Amy Handlan@AmyHandlan
Exciting new research on gender & tone in economics presentations is out! @haoyu906 and I have a new paper where we use a replicable, scalable, machine-learning approach to analyze dynamics in economics presentations. #EconTwitter #GenderInEconomics
6:02 PM · Mar 24, 2023
10 Reposts · 36 Likes
Ben Zaranko@BenZaranko
This is interesting, on the impacts of starting child benefit payments in pregnancy rather than at birth. Sending pregnant mothers in the UK three months' worth (~£190) in the third trimester led to
1) higher average birth weight
2) fewer babies being born prematurely.
Mary Reader @reader_mary
Incredibly excited to have my first sole-authored paper published today at @JHealthEcon on the infant health effects of starting child benefits in pregnancy 📈🤰🏩 https://t.co/8efS4pL8sR
3:41 PM · Mar 20, 2023
317 Reposts · 853 Likes
Mary Reader@reader_mary
7/ Using a regression discontinuity design in the date of birth of the baby, I show that the policy led to a significant increase in average birth weights
3:03 PM · Mar 20, 2023
2 Reposts · 11 Likes
Adam Ozimek@ModeledBehavior
I want to do a quick thread on a new analysis from @InnovateEconomy on the emerging evidence on Opportunity Zones. Huge lessons for place based policy, and frankly some lessons on bias in the policy discourse
eig.org
Examining the Latest Multi-Year Evidence on the Scale and Effects of Opportunity Zones Investment - Economic Innovation Group
1:35 PM · Mar 22, 2023
27 Reposts · 66 Likes
Manasvini Singh@vini_singh_
Sizzling new WP with the incredible @sdschwab!
TLDR: The powerful really *are* living their best lives. Using data from military hospitals where both docs and patients have rank (a measure of power), we find that powerful patients get more care and have better outcomes.
🧵1/9
5:29 PM · Mar 20, 2023
201 Reposts · 662 Likes
Zachary Bleemer@zbleemer
I wrote a book! #EconTwitter 🧵
Our goal was to translate frontier economics research into a book for parents and students to help answer three questions:
Should you go to college?
Where should you go to college?
What should you study in college?
amazon.com/Metrics-That-M…
5:40 PM · Mar 20, 2023
46 Reposts · 274 Likes
^“"Mobility" rankings don't reflect causal effects and are unhelpful to students.”
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas@pogourinchas
New IMF working paper with S. Ando, G. Dell'Arricia, @guido_lorenzoni, Adrian Peralta and @francisco_roch on Eurozone debt mutualization without direct transfers. imf.org/en/Publication… 1/N
6:15 PM · Mar 23, 2023
9 Reposts · 41 Likes
Saumitra Jha@saumjha
In politically polarized societies where trust is low, things can look bleak. But we find that by encouraging folks to invest in broad financial assets that allow them to share in the risks & returns of others, we can build trust, & do so particularly among political partisans.
Chagai Weiss @chagai_weiss
New working paper with @saumjha \& @moseshayo.
Using an RCT in 🇮🇱 we show that providing Jewish Israelis with opportunities to trade in financial markets increases generalized trust.
https://t.co/EcYryRlVq0
A short overview 🧵: https://t.co/JzRJKg00gY
11:18 PM · Mar 24, 2023
8 Reposts · 62 Likes
AI
Tom Westgarth@Tom_Westgarth15
Will advances in AI now put a premium on novelty?
Great @PNASNews research looking at how advances in Go led to an uptick in more unusual moves in the game pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
2:33 PM · Mar 23, 2023
1 Repost · 5 Likes
pamela mishkin@ManlikeMishap
Excited to share our paper on the theoretical economic impacts of GPTs and GPT-powered software!
Excited that people are reading it, but I've seen a few tweets frame this as a prediction, and I wanted to share a few ways that is not the case.
Paper section here, tweets below.
10:11 PM · Mar 20, 2023
35 Reposts · 146 Likes
sam manning@sj_manning
Excited to have this working paper up on arxiv! arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
6:45 PM · Mar 20, 2023
61 Reposts · 266 Likes
Yo Shavit@yonashav
If AI models get even better, their unchecked use will begin to pose serious dangers to society.
Most people agree it’d be great if countries could agree on rules to prevent AI misuse/accidents, & avoid an arms race.
But how could rules on AI actually be enforced?
Paper thread:
4:30 PM · Mar 24, 2023
35 Reposts · 66 Likes
More paper summaries
Margarita Tsoutsoura@M_Tsoutsoura
We are excited that our paper on political ideology and international capital allocation will be published in the May volume of the Journal of Financial Economics! @KempfElisabeth @MancyLuo @LarissaSchfer9 @J_Fin_Economics
authors.elsevier.com/c/1goMo_,iI-f-…
It makes three main points:
11:32 PM · Mar 25, 2023
24 Reposts · 132 Likes
Franck Portier@FpjPortier
What is the main result? Assuming a Taylor rule (any incarnation of the original one) when estimating a New Keynesian DSGE model is not a good idea, as it biases models deep parameters estimates. 2/11
12:30 PM · Mar 20, 2023
10 Reposts · 61 Likes
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel)@TradeDiversion
New working paper w/ @GottliebEcon, Lozinski & Mourot:
"Market Size and Trade in Medical Services"
If you think medical services are non-tradable, buckle up! Lots of trade between US regions: 22% of care is physicians treating patients from another region.
1/6
1:59 PM · Mar 20, 2023
23 Reposts · 65 Likes
Gaetano Gaballo@GaetanoGaballo
🧐 Interested in incomplete markets, inequality and monetary policy?
A new paper 🥳 with @EricMengus in #journalofmonetaryeconomics shows myopic redistributions ensure long-run monetary efficiency in OLG economies!
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
A short thread 👇 1/7
10:45 AM · Mar 21, 2023
3 Reposts · 46 Likes
Matthew Leisten@LeistenEcon
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 w/ Nicholas Vreugdenhil: “Dynamic Regulation with Firm Linkages”
In this paper, we empirically measure the effectiveness of a dynamic linked regulation regime.
What is dynamic linked regulation, and why is it useful? Read on!🧵
6:29 PM · Mar 21, 2023
6 Reposts · 36 Likes
Tomer Ifergane@iftomer
🚨 New draft out! 📜 🚨 “The Racial Wealth Gap: the Role of Entrepreneurship”
@albuquerq_dan
Q1: What are the determinants of the racial wealth gap?
Q2: What is the potential role of policies in closing it?
Barriers to entrepreneurship are the key determinant
👇 Summary 🧵
3:01 PM · Mar 24, 2023
16 Reposts · 37 Likes
Camille Semelet@CSemelet
🚨New working paper!🚨
With @pierrebachas, @AnneBrockmeyer and @Roel_Dom, we study how firms use tax incentives to lower their effective tax rate (ETR). How do ETRs vary with firm size? And what are the implications for the global minimum tax?
A short 🧵👇[1/6]
3:29 PM · Mar 23, 2023
28 Reposts · 98 Likes
Matteo Maggiori@m_maggiori
New paper released today! I had long wanted to write this paper. Finally, we could do it. Take a look! https://t.co/bLURVsmMBk
Global Capital Allocation Project @GCAProject
New research collaboration with the European Central Bank (@ecb)
First paper: Reassessing Euro Area financial integration, looking through the financial activities taking place in European “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) — Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands. https://t.co/PEcuqMXdix
8:15 PM · Mar 24, 2023
14 Reposts · 78 Likes