Best of #econtwitter - Week of June 5, 2022 [1/3]
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Thanks to those sharing suggestions, over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
This is part one of three.
Paper summaries
Where do college grads go after school? In our new WP on college-specific labor markets, we find out for 2,600 US colleges. Available @nberpubs! nber.org/papers/w30088
A🧵on the paper and where to access the data @SteveHemelt @BHershbein Shawn Martin @andrewrsimon @kevin_stange
Using data from college LinkedIn pages, we find only 50% of grads (2010-2018) ended up in the same metro area as the college they attended. If you go a level higher, still just 67% of grads end up in the same state. This varies by school type, region, & selectivity (see⬇️)
^data available here
Top Destinations for @Stanford grads [its hard to leave the sunshine]:
CA: 75.3%
NY: 5.7%
Top Destinations for @Harvard grads:
MA: 28.6%
NY: 15.0%
CA: 22.7%
Top Destinations for @Princeton grads:
NY: 29.5%
CA: 23%
NJ: 16.5%
This paper presents a bunch of facts about the decline in the share of US kids living with two parents.
These trends matter because they are consequential to kids’ outcomes & to class gaps in outcomes.
I highlight five key facts in this thread -
NBER @nberpubs
Many decisions invoke conflicting motives:
- Discrimination that tries to look even-handed
- Temptations that clash with personal rules
- Unconscious biases that distort conscious choice
@testingham and I wrote a theory capturing all these, and more. 🧵
jondequidt.com/pdfs/paper_imp…
🚨New!🚨 You're estimating a population mean from samples observed with varied probabilities. Do you use a Horvitz–Thompson/IPW or a Hájek/self-normalizing estimator? @stats_samir and I examine an old question due to Trotter & Tukey (1954): why not both?arxiv.org/abs/2106.07695 🧵
Today's edition of "striking examples in game theory": an asymmetric information game in which *every* sequential equilibrium has a player convinced of a state and subsequently relinquishing that belief. (I've changed the players' names to protect their anonymity.)
While coarse correlated equilibria (CCE) are very tractable in one-shot games, @GolowichNoah, @KaiqingZhang and I show that, surprisingly, stationary (Markov) CCE are intractable in stochastic games, and thus Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL):
arxiv.org/abs/2204.03991
arxiv.org/abs/2004.01598 Cool paper using tools from cryptography to modify some impossibility results in auction theory.
Generally, a second price auction requires you to trust the auctioneer- if you bid 20 and the second highest bid is 18, can lie and say there was a bid of 19.
My paper with @hhaishili has a new version! We use a new identification strategy to find out the effect of tariffs on employment. This is a thread on how and why tariffs can increase employment and "bring jobs back".
#EconTwitter #BringJobsBack #AcademicTwitter #Tariff
E-commerce fulfillment centers have a huge impact. Getting one in a county:
💸Drops retail workers income in the county by 2.4%
📉Reduces sales at retail stores by 4%
👨💼Costs the county 938 retail jobs a quarter
🚚Adds 256 warehouse & 143 food jobs/quarter nber.org/papers/w30077
Interesting discussions
Do you *need* to publish during your PhD? I’m sure you’ll all be shocked that the answer is “It depends.”
A short thread on what I used to tell the students in the second-year paper seminar. 1/
If you publish once in a good field journal during your econ PhD, you are more productive than the median graduate from top programs.
And that’s if we measure their productivity in the 6 years -after- their PhD!
Marc F. Bellemare 🇺🇦 @marcfbellemare
The median Harvard graduate publishes 0.04 AER-equivalent papers in the 6 years after PhD. (Roughly, 0.3 papers in a “high quality field journal.) Peer programs have similar statistics. Source:
^these statements are based on a 2014 JEP which uses data on grads from 1986-2000, but (1) since 2000 coauthorship has become much much more common, including between grad students and their advisors; and (2) in the last ten years, predocs have become much much more common especially at these top schools, which in particular often lead to coauthorship. So it seems quite likely these patterns have changed/are in the process of changing substantially. Someone please update!
