Best of #econtwitter - Week of January 30, 2022 [3/3]
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Thanks to those sharing suggestions, over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
This is part three of three. Part one is here and part two here. There will be a special metrics edition later this week, because too much good content this week.
Paper summary threads
nber.org/papers/w29677
The Second World War, Inequality and the Social Contract in England
"Social democracy was born in a war and destruction" takes but with econometrics now.
Separately:
First, the authors document a new, exogenous source of variation in Socialist support across Italy in the 1919 election based on war casualties from the area:
Second, they show how this boost to Socialist support, exogenous to the prior political leaning of a municipality, led to significantly larger vote share of the Fascist Party in the 1924 election.
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The consequences of losing a job differ greatly across Europe:
🔹5 years after job loss, 20% of workers is still unemployed in 🇪🇸🇮🇹🇵🇹
🔹this is only 5% in 🇸🇪🇩🇰 and 10% in 🇫🇷🇦🇹
🔹daily wage rates drop 5% to 15%
docs.iza.org/dp15033.pdf by @AntoineBertheau, @ildodo12 et al.
A 🧵about "The Gender Gap in Self-Promotion," my paper with @christine_exley that is coming out in the #QJE.
We give subjects a math and science test. First, they guess their score. We then ask them subjective questions about how well they think they did on the test.
1/n
QJE @QJEHarvard
🚨Updated Draft🚨
Macro Consequences of Subsistence Self-Employment w/@juanherreno 🔗ocamp020.github.io/HO_Self_Employ…
🔹Agg. effect of policies (micro-credit, transfers) depends on behavior of the SE
🔹When low-prod. unemployed become SE out of subsistence -> TFP ⬇️
🧵👇 (1/5)
Excited to share a new paper, or really a new enough version of a previous paper ("Directional motives and different priors are observationally equivalent") that the old title was no longer accurate.
Link:
osf.io/b8tvk/
🚨New Working Paper Alert! 🚨 “Focusing As Commitment”
Thread 👇with an overview. 1/10
mnagler.ccny.cuny.edu/research/focus…
More: A Task Based Theory of Occupations; summer youth employment; NYC high school choice
Interesting discussions
What caused the rise in inflation in the 70’s? How did it come back down.
long-ish 🧵 on role of models.
Just a friendly reminder that the Census still plans to sharply limit how much we know about US wages and wage growth.
Here's median annual change in wages using Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker data, with and without the Census plan to round wage data in the Current Population Survey.
CFPB is proposing to crack down on "junk fees", such as hotel resort fees, concert ticket convenience fees, debit card overdraft fees, and credit card late fees.
See: nytimes.com/2022/01/26/bus…
This is a research area of mine so I wanted to chime in with a few thoughts.
Begin 🧵
I don’t know if open review is right for contemporaneous papers, but I think we should have the process revealed by default for historical papers (say, with a 40-year time lag). E.g. I’d pay good money to see the reviews and responses from ECMA for Kahneman & Tversky 1979.
Glad others with a bigger voice (i.e., not me) are speaking up. Tyler nails it. Top-25 places need not always land their 4th choice.
"Best argument for a coordinated market is simply that it serves the interests of the top schools, and makes sure they get the best candidates..."
tylercowen @tylercowen
^as always, inclusion in the newsletter is not necessarily an endorsement. See also
A lot of people are dunking on this for being incoherent, but there is something really important happening here as well. Scientific nihilism - the belief that we can't truly know or understand anything, is a longtime cornerstone of bad economics and bad politics 1/7
bad_stats @thebadstats
^setting aside culture war issues involved here, some good philosophy of science discussion
