Best of #econtwitter - Week of April 18, 2021
Welcome readers old and new to this week’s edition of Best of Econtwitter. Thanks to those sharing suggestions, over email or on Twitter @just_economics.
Paper summary threads
![Twitter avatar for @deaneckles](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/deaneckles.jpg)
Are "behavioral" phenomena — such as cognitive biases — just something that crops up in low-stakes settings?
This new paper adds to the evidence that often the answer is "no". Here "high incentives" amount to more than a participant's monthly income:
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEy8hqFZWEAEQm-T.jpg)
![Twitter avatar for @albrgr](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/albrgr.jpg)
Crazy stat: aging into legal driving age increases *total mortality risk* for teenagers by 15% julianreif.com/research/reif.…
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![Twitter avatar for @AEAjournals](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/AEAjournals.jpg)
AEA Journals @AEAjournals
![Twitter avatar for @guoxu_econ](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/guoxu_econ.jpg)
We link voter registration data to personnel records of nearly the ENTIRE federal government. We establish 3 facts: #1 while presidents use political appointments to align ideology, there are no political cycles in the career civil service – the bureaucracy works as designed.
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEywHwXaVIAULoDt.png)
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![Twitter avatar for @guoxu_econ](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/guoxu_econ.jpg)
#3 Misalignment creates significant costs. Looking at procurement officers across the bureaucracy, we find greater cost overrun for contracts processed under misalignment. We provide evidence suggestive of a negative "morale effect", whereby misaligned officers are less motivated
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEywH7_VVoAIyF34.png)
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![Twitter avatar for @peternka](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/peternka.jpg)
Short version: library capital investment increases library use, particularly for children.
Capital spending also leads to improvements in nearby students' reading test scores.
Left: log children's circulation. Right: Reading scores (std dev)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEyucLr8XMAAIwg3.jpg)
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![Twitter avatar for @maya_rossin](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/maya_rossin.jpg)
New paper 🧵:The US is the only OECD country w/out national paid family leave, and concern about employer costs is a central roadblock. In our new @nberpubs wp, we surveyed employers in NY & PA in the 2 yrs before & after NY’s PFL policy went into effect. We find NY employers 1/3
![Twitter avatar for @AdvikSh](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/AdvikSh.jpg)
In light of the US calling for a pause on the J&J vax, I wanted to re-up our new paper about changing guidance and trust in government.
We find that emphasizing changes in the government’s position can reduce the influence of government announcements on people’s beliefs.
(1/n)
![Twitter avatar for @JPubEcon](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/JPubEcon.jpg)
Journal of Public Economics @JPubEcon
![Twitter avatar for @dr_dmorgan](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/dr_dmorgan.jpg)
summary:
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing
Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
![Twitter avatar for @florianederer](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/florianederer.jpg)
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![Twitter avatar for @PopSci](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/PopSci.jpg)
Popular Science @PopSci
![Twitter avatar for @garjoh_canuck](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/garjoh_canuck.jpg)
🤔DO ADS ACTUALLY WORK?🤔
🧵We tackle this question using a large collection of display ad field experiments in a working paper with @EconInformatics & @enub
"The Online Display Ad Effectiveness Funnel & Carryover: Lessons from 432 Field Experiments”
ssrn.com/abstract=27015… 1/8
![pop up lol GIF by Stephen Maurice Graham](https://substackcdn.com/video/upload/e_loop,vs_40/tfrgkgzj4rb07b4cwfkc.gif)
![Twitter avatar for @MeganTStevenson](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/MeganTStevenson.jpg)
I want to share a methodological approach that @AOUSS and I used in our (newly revised!) paper on cash bail. It’s a method of identifying racial disparities in policy implementation that I think might be useful to others. (Long thread) 1/
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
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![Twitter avatar for @gabriel_zucman](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/gabriel_zucman.jpg)
Excited that our paper (with E. Saez), “A Wealth Tax on Corporations’ Stock”, is now out!
Idea: a tax of 0.2% on the market value of big companies
- Hard to avoid
- Firms can pay by issuing shares (if they lack liquidity)
- Raise $180 billion annually
^Sylvain Catherine comments: “an increment of 0.2% in cost of capital reduces market value by 14%”
![Twitter avatar for @kennedy_patk](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/kennedy_patk.jpg)
New working paper with my co-author @hbwheel w/ first available evidence from tax records on Opportunity Zones:
- How responsive are investors?
- Which neighborhoods receive investment?
- New tract-level panels based on IRS microdata
>> thread
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEy3mZVTU8AYRkaK.png)
More: social discount rate; debt crisis theory, labor rationing, decline in US net foreign asset position
Interesting discussions
![Twitter avatar for @mattsclancy](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/mattsclancy.jpg)
This @Noahpinion piece has generated a lot of discussion. An ongoing thread of interesting reactions from #EconTwitter https://t.co/ViSUyWpbWJ
![Twitter avatar for @Noahpinion](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/Noahpinion.jpg)
Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion
![Twitter avatar for @RyanReedHill](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RyanReedHill.jpg)
Econ PhD advice thread: @carolyn_sms and I co-wrote our job market papers, so we often get asked about the pros and cons of co-authoring with grad school peers. Now that we both have survived the market, I wanted to tweet out a few reflections on our experience.
![Twitter avatar for @jasonfurman](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jasonfurman.jpg)
This thread itself is 37 more tweets on inflation than I did in three and a half years at CEA.
Times have changed.
![Twitter avatar for @WhiteHouseCEA](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/WhiteHouseCEA.jpg)
Council of Economic Advisers @WhiteHouseCEA
![Twitter avatar for @danilaserra_eco](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/danilaserra_eco.jpg)
#econtwitter: if you are the primary editor of an economics journal (not top but good), overseeing hundreds of submissions per year, what kind of support do you receive from your department? Teaching reductions? Graduate assistant? Anything?! (Asking for a friend)
![Twitter avatar for @KevinZollman](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/KevinZollman.jpg)
So the NYer retweeted this old article today, and it's causing some consternation on #EconTwitter. I thought I would take the opportunity to discuss issues about testability and game theory. (Something I've thought about quite a bit.)
![Twitter avatar for @NewYorker](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/NewYorker.jpg)
The New Yorker @NewYorker
![Twitter avatar for @jialanw](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jialanw.jpg)
We should do hackathons in economics. E.g. a bunch of researchers get together + analyze a dataset for a couple of days, and present and share the results. Maybe this could work for theory too?
Would be a nice break from the 100-page paper / 6-year publication lag equilibrium.