Best of #econtwitter - Economist forecasts of AI impacts, special supplement
Useful benchmarking for where folks are at on this — “what will the economic impacts of AI be?”:
[forgive the odd mix of screenshots and embeds; Substack has been tweaking out a bit]
Karger et al (2026)
^Phil Tetlock (fwiw): “this study is the most ambitious subjective-probability forecasting exercise I’ve ever seen”. It is indeed a very long survey!, the paper is 224 pages
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
3. Rapid:
- "writes Pulitzers & negotiates the book deal",
- "surpass all programmers & customer service agents & paralegals"
- "robots can do most tasks"
(my paraphrasing -- it's worth reading these details)
7:11 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 3.27K Views
1 Reply · 1 Repost · 24 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
(1) Economists are just as bullish as AI researchers on capabilities progress
- ~15% on rapid scenario by 2030 for both groups
- ~60% total for moderate+rapid scenario for both
This was VERY surprising to me!
https://t.co/KSHkIEQOmg
Jason Abaluck @Jabaluck
I was surprised by the results of this study:
I thought AI researchers would forecast faster AI progress than economists, but there was little difference.
Most differences are about forecasted economic impacts for given capabilities, and more within group than between group.
7:11 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 3.83K Views
1 Reply · 37 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
(2) Set aside the scenarios. By 2050, in expectation,
- Economists expect 2.5% GDP growth, the same as 2030
- AI researchers expect an increase from 2.5% in 2030 to 3% in 2050
No singularity expected here, by either group!!!
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 2.96K Views
1 Reply · 31 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
(3) Even assuming we achieve the "rapid" scenario by 2030, expectations rise... but still no *transformative* growth here
- Economists: 3.3% (2030) and 3.7% (2050)
- AI researchers: 3.7% (2030) and 5.3% (2050)
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 17.8K Views
1 Reply · 29 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Again: forecasting 15% chance, by 2030, AI and robots can do most things humans can do, at least as cheaply...
...but that if this happens, 20 years later, GDP growth has risen by 1pp
???
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 3.47K Views
2 Replies · 4 Reposts · 74 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Basically I think this is insane. Wake up!
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 24K Views
6 Replies · 6 Reposts · 119 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Attempting but failing to steelman pt1:
(a) Yes bottlenecks will slow progress, this is extremely important. But the rapid scenario under consideration has already chewed through most bottlenecks
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 2.24K Views
3 Replies · 27 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
-------------------
To be clear, I personally am not expecting the rapid scenario by 2030 (<15% probability even)
But I really do think people are not grappling with the implications here...
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 1.75K Views
4 Replies · 28 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
----------------
You can fill out a version of the survey here: explore.forecastingresearch.org/participate/ee…
Though I emphasize it does not have all the details of the full survey given to participants -- see appendix H of the paper for in full
7:12 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 1.36K Views
1 Reply · 11 Likes
Basil Halperin@BasilHalperin
Biggest limitation IMO of survey design was the unidimensional "slow/medium/fast", vs. distinguishing different speeds along different dimensions
This was necessary bc the survey was already too long, but pulling out "robotics vs not" is super important
https://t.co/QBLJ9MR5W7
1:45 PM · Apr 1, 2026 · 960 Views
1 Reply · 5 Likes
Forecasting Research Institute@Research_FRI
Economists' median forecast of 2.5% annualized GDP growth by 2030 is still higher than most comparable forecasts used by government agencies and the private sector, which tend to be closer to 2%.
1:04 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 5.24K Views
1 Reply · 3 Reposts · 29 Likes
Forecasting Research Institute@Research_FRI
Most expert disagreement isn't about whether we get powerful AI systems—it's about what powerful AI systems would do to the economy.
For economists' 2030 GDP growth forecasts:
• 78.7% of the total variation in forecasts is driven by the uncertainty that each economist has about
1:04 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 3.69K Views
1 Reply · 2 Reposts · 24 Likes
Forecasting Research Institute@Research_FRI
We also asked economists what they thought of six policies that might address the impact of rapid AI progress.
Economists strongly favor targeted measures such as worker retraining, whereas the general public supports both targeted programs and broader interventions, including a
1:04 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 3.62K Views
2 Replies · 4 Reposts · 21 Likes
Discussion of the paper and results
tom cunningham@testingham
This is a great paper but contains a puzzle: forecasters expect even if we automate most labor and wait 20 years, GDP will only increase by 45%.
I would love to hear how people are thinking about this.
Forecasting Research Institute @Research_FRI
We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.
They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation.
5:15 PM · Mar 31, 2026 · 29.6K Views
18 Replies · 8 Reposts · 135 Likes
Connacher Murphy@connacher_
The reaction to this project highlights one thing that excites me about judgmental forecasting: debates that culminate in (falsifiable) forecasts are more transparent and productive. This is especially true with conditional forecasting. One such example:
tom cunningham @testingham
This is a great paper but contains a puzzle: forecasters expect even if we automate most labor and wait 20 years, GDP will only increase by 45%.
I would love to hear how people are thinking about this.
3:19 PM · Apr 1, 2026 · 1.04K Views
1 Reply · 2 Reposts · 13 Likes
Matt Clancy@mattsclancy
A couple of years ago I did a debate with @tamaybes on whether economic growth would shoot to 20%+ per year if we invented AI and robots that can cheaply do ~anything humans can do. I was the skeptic in that debate, putting the odds of explosive growth at 10% or so, compared to
Forecasting Research Institute @Research_FRI
We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.
They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation.
2:19 AM · Apr 1, 2026 · 41.9K Views
4 Replies · 24 Reposts · 157 Likes
^long post with several points
^one really wonders about inattention, as described here, on a 5+ hour survey…
Related broader discussion of the economics of AI
^idk… MC going to *zero*?
Fin
(Tabarrok obviously was joking but)